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Spain’s long-term future could look very different if immigration levels were significantly reduced, according to a new report by the National Office for Foresight and Strategy (ONPE). The study explores what might happen if the country cut its immigrant population by 30%, and the conclusions are far from reassuring.

 

Rather than easing pressure, the report suggests such a move would create serious challenges. Over the next 50 years, Spain’s population could fall by more than a quarter, dropping to around 40 million by 2075. That would mean losing around 9 million working-age people, a shift that would directly affect “economic activity, innovation, and the well-being of the country.”

 

This comes at a time when migration remains firmly in the spotlight, with recent scrutiny over rising arrivals and pressure on Mediterranean routes highlighting how central the issue has become across Spain and the EU.

 

The economic impact would also be significant. The report estimates GDP could fall by more than 20%, while average annual income per person could drop by €18,000. As the study notes, “the foreign population has contributed between 15% and 25% of annual income growth”, underlining its role in supporting everyday economic activity.

 

 

Key industries would feel the strain. Agriculture could see more than 220,000 farms abandoned due to labour shortages, while the hospitality sector, a cornerstone of Spanish life, could lose up to 90,000 bars over the same period. Care services would also be hit, with a projected 28% drop in workers just as the elderly population rises by around 60%.

 

These findings sit alongside broader demographic trends, as Spain’s population has already surged past 49 million in recent years, largely driven by immigration rather than natural growth. With a fertility rate of just 1.1 children per woman and life expectancy at 84, the country is ageing rapidly.

 

Public services would not be immune either. Fewer young people could lead to thousands of classroom closures, while healthcare pressures would grow, with up to 64,000 fewer specialist doctors and longer waiting lists. Taxes could also rise by as much as €2,000 per year to maintain pensions and essential services.

 

At the same time, localised arrivals continue to make headlines, with coastal regions such as Murcia experiencing periodic spikes in migrant landings.

 

Taken together, the report offers a clear message. Immigration is not just a political issue, but a key factor shaping Spain’s economic stability, workforce and future living standards.

 

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