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Flu cases exploded across Spain right before Christmas last year, then largely faded from the headlines as spring took hold. Now, with autumn approaching, the numbers are climbing again. Covid, meanwhile, is a virus many people have more or less stopped thinking about, but it’s picking up too, a reminder that it never really left and is simply settling in alongside the other seasonal illnesses doing the rounds.

 

According to the latest weekly report from the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII), covering September 7 to 13, the flu positivity rate in primary care now stands at 8.2%, double the 4% recorded at the same point last year. Cases remain below the epidemic threshold for now.

 

Dr Buzón, an infectious disease specialist and spokesperson for the Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, described it as a "substantial increase", mostly involving subclade K of influenza A H3N2.

 

Dr Buzón pointed out that this same subclade drove last year's early flu peak and has been dominant through the Southern Hemisphere's winter, so vaccines being rolled out this autumn should already be matched to it. His best guess for the early rise is simply the return to school and work after the holidays, but he stressed it remains only a hypothesis.

 

Dr Molero, a family physician and member of the semFYC infectious diseases group, agreed that it’s worth waiting a few more weeks to see whether the usual December peak repeats this year.

 

Covid tells a similar story of rising numbers, but the rise is more pronounced. The positivity rate now sits at 16.7%, higher than flu and up from 15% the previous week, although still some way below the 30% recorded this time last year. The sharpest rise by far is among infants under one, where the infection rate has more than doubled in a fortnight, from 47.4 to 125.8 cases per 100,000.

 

Dr Molero explained that babies have the highest diagnosis rates simply because they have no built-up immunity yet, and that this year's pattern is not unusual. Those over 80 form the second most affected group, since vaccine protection in older people fades within a few months and was never designed to prevent infection outright, only to reduce the severity of illness.

 

Dr Buzón noted that Covid behaves differently to flu in one key respect: it’s not a strictly seasonal virus and can generate waves even in warmer months, which helps explain the summer spike behind these latest figures.

 

On the ground, paediatrician Dr Osorio explained that his clinic is seeing the usual September uptick in respiratory infections, arriving roughly ten to fifteen days after the school term began, as children spend more time in close contact indoors. Most cases involve fevers with no obvious cause, colds or gastroenteritis.

 

He has also noticed more Covid cases, typically milder and shorter-lived than before, lasting around 24 hours with symptoms like body aches, joint pain and loss of appetite. Flu, for now, remains sporadic in his practice, with no sign yet of crossing the epidemic threshold.

 

 

 

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