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Date Published: 26/02/2025

Scientists rule out asteroid's impact with Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was briefly considered a risk, but new observations confirm Earth is safe

Good news from the world of astronomy as scientists have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with Earth in December 2032, despite initial concerns.

The asteroid, which measures between 40 and 100 metres in diameter, was discovered in late 2024. Early calculations suggested a 1.2% chance of impact. However, as more data came in, this figure fluctuated. By February 18, 2025, the probability of collision had peaked at around 3% – the highest ever recorded for an asteroid larger than 30 metres.

This threshold was significant, as it’s where space agencies start considering potential mitigation strategies, á la Armageddon. However, just a day later, improved observations using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) slashed the risk in half.

This rise and fall in impact probability followed a familiar pattern in asteroid tracking. To predict where 2024 YR4 would be in 2032, scientists had to extrapolate from the small section of its orbit they had observed.

As astronomer Olivier Hainaut explains, “Because of uncertainties, the asteroid’s orbit is like a flashlight beam: getting wider and wider and blurrier in the distance. As we observe further, the beam becomes sharper and narrower. Earth was increasingly illuminated by this beam: the probability of impact increased.”

At one point, Earth seemed to be caught in that widening beam, raising concerns. But with further tracking, astronomers could pinpoint a clearer trajectory, ultimately ruling out any chance of impact.

This case highlights just how dynamic asteroid monitoring can be. Initial predictions are based on limited data, and it’s only through continued observation that scientists can refine their calculations. It also demonstrates the importance of the global network of space agencies and observatories that keep watch over near-Earth objects (NEOs), ensuring potential threats are identified and assessed well in advance.

So, while 2024 YR4 briefly made headlines, we can breathe easy for now as this particular space rock will sail past us harmlessly.

You may also be interested in: Murcia University professor reveals how to save Earth from an asteroid collision

Image: NASA Hubble Space Telescope

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